Uncertainty in econometrics: evaluating policy counterfactuals
What is consensus in economic policy advice? If most or even all economists agree on some economic claim, that does not make the claim correct; that is, passing for true is not being true. That is perhaps the unifying message of the fourteen chapters in this edited volume. Furthermore, economic theory is urged to develop in ways such that economists can have their feet held to the fires sparked by their advice to policymakers. The volume explores these messages through a series of overarching themes, including the effect of uncertainty in economists' policy analyses, the role of truth in the advice given by economists, and specific topics in the philosophy of economic science, especially the potential for pragmatic theories to deploy standards of truth in order to address uncertainty in policymaking.