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Housing market dynamics: on the contribution of income shocks and credit constraints

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This paper presents a dynamic theory of housing market fluctuations. It develops a life-cycle model where households are heterogeneous with respect to income and preferences, and mortgage lending is restricted by a down-payment requirement. the market interaction of young credit-constrained households with order or richer unconstrained households generates the following results. (1) Current income of young credit-constrained households affects housing prices independently of aggregate income. (2) Housing prices and the number of housing transactions are positively correlated. (3) Housing prices over-react to income shocks. (4) A relaxation of the down-payment constraint triggers a boom-but cycle. These results are consistent with patterns observed in the US and the UK.

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en

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application/pdf

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/25049/1/dp375.pdf

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