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Do anticipated tax changes matter? Further evidence from the United Kingdom

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This paper provides some evidence against the rational expectations-permanent income model of consumption behaviour and the Ricardian Equivalence proposition by testing the responsiveness of spending to the implementation of pre-announced changes in income tax. Extending the work of Summer (1991), a long series of recurrent episodes of this kind is for the U.K (1960-1990) is examined. It is found that consumption expenditure strongly reacts to (pre-announced) fiscally-induced changes in current disposable income. This effect is due to the semi-durable and durable components of spending.

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en

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/20992/

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