Resource title

Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth

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Resource description

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast performance check a particular testing framework is derived that allows the computation of robust test statistics given the specific nature of the generated out-of sample forecasts. In addition, medium-term GDP projections from national and international institutions are examined and it is assessed whether these projections convey a reliable view about future economic developments and whether there is scope for improving their predictive content.

Resource author

Marcus Kappler

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Resource publish date

Resource language

eng

Resource content type

text/html

Resource resource URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/24653

Resource license

Adapt according to the presented license agreement and reference the original author.