Resource title

Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?

Resource image

image for OpenScout resource :: Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?

Resource description

Could a researcher or policy analyst use data reported from surveys of consumer confidence to improve forecasts of consumer spending? This issue has been examined in the literature previously, which reached the conclusion that consumer confidence helped improve the forecasts slightly. But that research was based on final, revised data and thus did not use the data that would have been available to forecasters in real time. This paper remedies that shortcoming, using the Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists to analyze the quality of forecasts made with indexes of consumer confidence. The main finding is that the indexes of consumer confidence are not of significant value in forecasting consumer spending. In fact, in some cases, they make the forecasts significantly worse.

Resource author

Dean Croushore

Resource publisher

Resource publish date

Resource language

eng

Resource content type

text/html

Resource resource URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19494

Resource license

Adapt according to the presented license agreement and reference the original author.