Resource title

Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany

Resource image

image for OpenScout resource :: Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany

Resource description

This paper examines the consequences of using "real-time" data for business cycle analysis in Germany based on a novel data set covering quarterly real output data from 1968 to 2001. Real-time output gaps are calculated. They differ considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent data. Moreover, they are not rational forecasts of the final series. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation, and stylised facts of the business cycle are also addressed. The results suggest that revisions of data and estimates can seriously distort research and policy implications.

Resource author

Jörg Döpke

Resource publisher

Resource publish date

Resource language

eng

Resource content type

text/html

Resource resource URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19478

Resource license

Adapt according to the presented license agreement and reference the original author.