Resource title

Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?

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Resource description

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can help predicting turning points of the business cycle.

Resource author

Ulrich Fritsche, Vladimir Kouzine

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Resource publish date

Resource language

eng

Resource content type

text/html

Resource resource URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18050

Resource license

Adapt according to the presented license agreement and reference the original author.