Resource title

Latent Utility Shocks in a Structural Empirical Asset Pricing Model

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Resource description

We consider a random utility extension of the fundamental Lucas (1978) equilibriumasset pricing model. The resulting structural model leads naturally to a likelihoodfunction. We estimate the model using U.S. asset market data from 1871 to2000, using both dividends and earnings as state variables. We find that current dividendsdo not forecast future utility shocks, whereas current utility shocks do forecastfuture dividends. The estimated structural model produces a sequence of predictedutility shocks which provide better forecasts of future long-horizon stock market returnsthan the classical dividend-price ratio.KEYWORDS: Randomutility, asset pricing, maximumlikelihood, structuralmodel,return predictability

Resource author

Bent Jesper Christensen, Peter Raahauge

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Resource language

eng

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application/pdf

Resource resource URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7135

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