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Socio-economic modelling and forecasting

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This is the first of a set of four related papers. It reviews some of the typical variables used in forcasting and modelling exercises, from the standpoint of generalized behavioral characteristcs, linkages and time scales. The distinction between secular (irreversible) trends and cyclic (reversible) variables is important. Demographic and economic variables are emphasized particularly herein. Environmental trends are considered in the second paper of the set. Technological trends are discussed in the third paper. The special phenomenology of "crashes" is discussed in depth in the fourth paper in the series

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