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An Application of technology diffusion models to forecast long-term PV market penetration

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This paper aims at examining the diffusion process of PV in southern Europe in the next four decades. Towards this end, it first undertakes a detailed bottom-up analysis of the PV market in five European countries and identifies the segments that are most appropriate for PV applications. Then it simulates PV penetration under four macroeconomic scenarios. The analysis suggests that today there are already opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale-economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. The results also show that the diffusion process could be dramatically accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO2 emissions over the system life-cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.

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en

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application/pdf

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http://flora.insead.edu/fichiersti_wp/inseadwp2000/2000-44.pdf

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Copyright INSEAD. All rights reserved