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A Dynamic resource allocation policy in multiproject environments

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We develop a dynamic prioritization policy to optimally allocate a scarce resource among K projezcts, only one of which can be worked on at a time. A project is represented by a Markov decision process, with states corresponding to the technical quality of the project output. Each project must go through a fixed number of stages. Payofss accrue at the end of each projet, depending on the quality of its output. in the absence of delay penalties, the problem is a "multi-armed bandit". When maximizing the expected payoff of the entire project portfolio, it is optimal to work on the project with the highest expected value. The presence of switching costs leaves teh structure of the policy intact, while discouraging the scarce resource from changing projects mid-course unless the value from switching exceeds the switching cost. When delays cause payoff losses, the decomposition property of the multi-armed bandit problem is lost. In the resulting "restless bandit" problem, we are able to find the optimak policy if the delay loss is an increasing fraction of the potential payoff. It is optimal to work on the project with the highest expected delay loss as if the other project were completely finished first. The structure of this policy remains valid if projects are subject to stochastic schedule delays: work on the project with the highest expected delay loss, including its expected schedule delay.

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en

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application/pdf

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http://flora.insead.edu/fichiersti_wp/inseadwp2000/2000-10.pdf

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Copyright INSEAD. All rights reserved