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Data transferability: estimating the response effect of future events based on historical analogy

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Many managerial decisions are made with considerable uncertainty about their possible impacts. In assessing such problems, we often rely on analogous situations in the hope that they will shed light on the possible outcomes. This historical analogy assessment is often done in a rather ad hoc fashion. This paper introduces a formal methodology for transferring information or data from one situation to another. A simple recursive least squares approach to the Bayesian data transferability problem is discussed. Focus is on the method's applicability to commonly encountered marketing problems. Empirical testing and estimation issues are discussed and illustrated in the framework of generic substitution of brandname drug sales following patent expiration.

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en

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application/pdf

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http://flora.insead.edu/fichiersti_wp/inseadwp1992/92-56.pdf

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Copyright INSEAD. All rights reserved